Manifest-driven data visualization atlas

Exponential Progress Atlas

Interactive timelines showing how compute, energy, coordination, memory, and adoption compound into civilizational acceleration.

Atlas Thesis

Energy Compute Memory Coordination Adoption Capability Acceleration

Each chart is an audit surface: historical observations, estimates, proxies, and speculative projections are labeled so the story remains readable without hiding uncertainty.

How to Read These Charts

Log scales turn multiplicative change into visible slopes. Circle markers indicate observed or estimated history; alternate markers and badges identify proxies, forecasts, and source-review needs. Use the interactive links for hover text and the data links to inspect source fields directly.

AI Compute Timeline chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas
1. AI Compute

AI Compute Timeline

HistoricalEstimatedSpeculative
10^27+ FLOPsData confidence: Mixed

Training compute from early electronic computing to frontier AI, with proxies and speculative projections labeled separately.

Adoption Timeline chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas
2. Adoption

Adoption Timeline

HistoricalEstimatedSpeculative
60x fasterData confidence: Mixed

Time-to-scale proxies across computing, connectivity, mobile, cloud, and AI paradigms.

Energetic Scaling chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas
3. Energetic

Energetic Scaling

HistoricalEstimatedSpeculative
10^6x+ efficiencyData confidence: Mixed

Biology, hardware efficiency, AI training compute, and foraging energetics compared with clean source datasets.

Civilization Scaling chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas
4. Civilization

Civilization Scaling

HistoricalEstimatedSpeculative
5 lanesData confidence: Mixed

Five civilizational lanes: energy, coordination, memory, replication, and latency over log-time.

Energy Leverage chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas
5. Energy Leverage

Energy Leverage

HistoricalHigh confidence
17x body energyData confidence: High

Per-person energy command relative to the metabolic baseline, with period anchors labeled explicitly.

Model Sizes chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas
6. Model Sizes

Model Sizes

EstimatedSpeculativeNeeds source review
1.5B -> 5T paramsData confidence: Speculative

Language model parameter counts over time, separating disclosed counts from estimates and unreleased projections.

AI Benchmark Progress chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas
7. AI Benchmarks

AI Benchmark Progress

HistoricalEstimatedSpeculative
4 benchmark lanesData confidence: Mixed

Benchmark progress against human baselines across knowledge, coding, software engineering, and reasoning tasks.

Cost to Train chart preview for the Exponential Progress Atlas
8. Cost to Train

Cost to Train

HistoricalEstimatedSpeculative
$/FLOP collapseData confidence: Mixed

Training cost, FLOPs, and capability over time, showing the efficiency paradox at the frontier.

9. Dashboard

Unified Dashboard

HistoricalEstimatedSpeculative
9 atlas entriesData confidence: Mixed

A synchronized overview of the atlas inventory using the same manifest as the homepage, README, build, and validator.

Canonical Inventory

#EntryScopeConfidence
1AI Compute TimelineTraining compute from early electronic computing to frontier AI, with proxies and speculative projections labeled separately.mixed
2Adoption TimelineTime-to-scale proxies across computing, connectivity, mobile, cloud, and AI paradigms.mixed
3Energetic ScalingBiology, hardware efficiency, AI training compute, and foraging energetics compared with clean source datasets.mixed
4Civilization ScalingFive civilizational lanes: energy, coordination, memory, replication, and latency over log-time.mixed
5Energy LeveragePer-person energy command relative to the metabolic baseline, with period anchors labeled explicitly.high
6Model SizesLanguage model parameter counts over time, separating disclosed counts from estimates and unreleased projections.speculative
7AI Benchmark ProgressBenchmark progress against human baselines across knowledge, coding, software engineering, and reasoning tasks.mixed
8Cost to TrainTraining cost, FLOPs, and capability over time, showing the efficiency paradox at the frontier.mixed
9Unified DashboardA synchronized overview of the atlas inventory using the same manifest as the homepage, README, build, and validator.mixed